The Favor

How much will John McCain owe Rush Limbaugh if he wins the 2008 election?

Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” angle, ostensibly designed to keep the Democrat primary going as long as possible, seems to be really geared towards extracting some concessions out of McCain if he emerges victorious on November 4. With an unpopular incumbent Republican President, an equally unpopular war, and a shaky economy, McCain’s chances for victory are still somewhat opaque. If Limbaugh’s actions help to clear up the Arizona senator’s Presidential skies, Mr. Maverick will have to pay “El Rushbo” back.

Limbaugh claims not to have ulterior motives, but it’s hard to take that claim at face value. Limbaugh, who seemingly supported Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney earlier in the campaign, is not terribly thrilled with McCain, a figure he regards as a liberal Republican. However, Limbaugh has made it clear that the prospect of either “Mrs. Clinton” or the Illinois Senator replacing George W. Bush as President gives him nightmares.

If “Operation Chaos” weakens the eventual Democrat nominee so severely that he or she loses to McCain, Limbaugh will declare himself single-handedly responsible for the Vietnam hero’s win. He will want some sort of “reward” for delivering the election to McCain.

What will that “reward” be? A President McCain who governs from the right.

McCain knows, or has to know, that if Limbaugh is powerful enough to make him President, Limbaugh is also powerful enough to destroy him as President. What Jeremiah Wright has done to Barack Obama will be infinitesimal compared to what Limbaugh could do to a President McCain if McCain does not lead in accord with Limbaugh’s Reagan-shaped values.

There’s clearly an unspoken deal at work here: Limbaugh will deliver the election to McCain by encouraging the Democrats to destroy each other, but in turn, McCain must abandon the “maverick” malarkey and govern as a true Goldwater/Reagan Republican. We’re already seeing signs of this “deal”: McCain’s rhetoric has become markedly more conservative in recent weeks, as the one-time GOP heretic has praised income tax cuts and denounced judges who legislate from the bench.

Perhaps Limbaugh feels that, like a political Pygmalion, he can remake McCain into the perfect conservative. Limbaugh respects McCain for his military accomplishments, but feels that his political accomplishments aren’t nearly as remarkable, largely because of his need to feel loved by “progressive” reporters.  By effectively forcing McCain to govern as a conservative, Limbaugh apparently hopes to make McCain the politician as noteworthy as McCain the soldier.

Some on the left would consider this a form of blackmail—but in reality, it’s just Limbaugh sticking to his principles. Limbaugh feels that Reagan’s vision works best for this country—and if he can use his power and influence to force McCain to adhere to the Reagan vision as President, so much the better. If Limbaugh can compel McCain to become a true-red conservative, who loses?

Obviously, the folks who wish for a return to “Rockefeller Republicanism” in the GOP won’t be thrilled if McCain reinvents himself as a right-winger at Limbaugh’s behest. Those skeptical of Reagan-style conservatism supported McCain over Bush in 2000 because they hoped McCain would lead the party away from the “neocons” and “Bible-thumpers” whose influence on the GOP was thought to be pernicious. The last thing these guys want is a President McCain who talks of American greatness and proclaims God’s blessing over the country.

Limbaugh has said for years that “blue-blood, country-club” Republicans loathe him every bit as much as committed Democrats do. These Republicans, argues Limbaugh, are not motivated by a commitment to conservative ideas—and have nothing but disdain for socially conservative Republicans. “Blue-blood, country-club” Republicans have long viewed McCain as a comrade-in-arms—and they will be horrified to see a President McCain transformed into a Limbaugh acolyte.

However, it’s not like McCain really has a choice. He can do things the easy way, or he can do things the hard way. The “easy way” is to avoid Limbaugh’s—and, by extension, the conservative movement’s—permanent censure by governing from the right, hewing closely to the Reagan model and avoiding the quasi-conservative Bush/Nixon model at all costs. The “hard way” is to demonstrate political ingratitude by governing as a “maverick” and scorning the views of Limbaugh and his conservative brethren. McCain has done foolish things in the past, but he’s no fool. Limbaugh has made him an offer he can’t refuse—and, if he’s elected President, McCain will, and will have to, hold up his end of the bargain. 

Comments

[Quaime]

Somehow I don't see McCain embracing true social or economic conservatism. So there isn't much of a deal here.